I'm Back After 6 Years | CPA Gone Mad Issue 19

I’m Back. Here’s Why.

Hey — it’s been a while.

The last CPA Gone Mad newsletter hit your inbox in April 2020. Six years ago. The world was locked down, the Fed was printing trillions, and I told you to hold your quality stocks and don’t change your financial plan because the panic would pass.

It did.

Since then, the S&P 500 nearly doubled. Bitcoin went from $7,000 to $125,000 and back to $67,000. Gold broke past $5,000. The government added more than $13 trillion in new debt. And AI went from a science fiction concept to something that’s replacing knowledge workers in real time.

I stopped writing, but I didn’t stop watching. I didn’t stop researching. And I certainly didn’t stop managing my own money through all of it.

So why come back now?

Because I think we’re at one of those moments where what most people believe is about to be proven spectacularly wrong. And when that happens, the people who understood what was coming have a massive advantage over those who didn’t.

I want you to be in the first group.

Let me catch you up.

The Number That Should Keep You Up at Night

Here’s something I learned recently that reframed how I think about every investment I own: your money needs to earn 11% per year just to break even.

Not to get rich. Just to not fall behind.

That’s 3% inflation (the number the government admits to) plus 8% annual monetary debasement (the number they don’t talk about). Governments globally are expanding the money supply at 8% per year to manage their debt. Your dollars are being diluted like shares in a company that keeps printing stock. I wrote about this dynamic years ago in Fake Money Created Today’s Bubble — and the problem has only gotten worse.

Your savings account at 4.5%? You’re losing 6.5% per year in real terms. A “balanced” 60/40 portfolio earning 7%? Still underwater.

I wrote a full breakdown on the blog: The 11% Hurdle Rate: Why Your Savings Account Is Making You Poorer

What to do about it: Own assets that benefit from debasement — not ones destroyed by it. Hard assets, scarce assets, and equity in pricing-power businesses.

Bitcoin: Down 45% and I’m Still Bullish

If you’ve been watching Bitcoin drop from $125,000 to $67,000 and thinking “I told you so” — fair enough. A 45% drawdown hurts no matter what your thesis says.

But here’s what I keep coming back to: this looks nothing like 2022.

In 2022, major exchanges were collapsing (FTX), lending platforms were going bankrupt (Celsius, Voyager), and there was genuine structural damage to the crypto ecosystem. The decline was justified by real problems.

Today? The infrastructure has never been stronger. ETFs exist and are operational. The GENIUS Act improved regulation. No major platforms have failed. Stablecoins processed $33 trillion last year — nearly double Visa’s volume. BlackRock and Fidelity now offer Bitcoin products. And a crypto market structure bill is expected to reach the President’s desk in the coming weeks, which would bring the regulatory clarity that’s been missing for a decade.

The selling is driven by temporary liquidity conditions — specifically, U.S. government shutdowns and Treasury operations draining money from the system. I wrote about what capitulation looks like when the Fear & Greed Index hit levels only matched during the COVID crash, the Terra/Luna collapse, and the FTX implosion. Those were all major bottoms.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times just published a piece saying Bitcoin is “$70,000 too high” — calling it worth literally zero. If you know anything about the Magazine Cover Indicator, you know that’s the kind of extreme consensus that marks turning points. I’ve been saying the data suggests being scared might be a good sign — and I still believe that.

I’ve laid out the full case across several recent blog posts. Here’s the trail:

My position hasn’t changed. I believe we’re in a correction within a larger bull market — not the start of a new bear cycle. But I’ve given you the specific data points that would prove me wrong if they occur. That’s in the blog posts above.

Gold and Bitcoin: Stop Picking Sides

One of the most interesting things I’ve come across in my recent research is the relationship between gold and Bitcoin.

Everyone treats them as competitors. They’re not. Data from CrossBorder Capital shows a stable equilibrium ratio of roughly 28 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, with about a 6.5-month mean reversion lag.

With gold above $5,000, the equilibrium Bitcoin price is $140,000 — more than double where it sits today. Bitcoin at $250,000 would imply gold near $9,000/oz.

Right now, gold has surged past $5,000 — hitting $5,353 on January 29 before a sharp pullback. Bitcoin sits at $67,000. The ratio is roughly 13:1, half the 28:1 equilibrium. If history holds, Bitcoin catches up.

Meanwhile, silver just had the worst single day in its 5,000-year history — crashing 26% on January 30. Gold dropped 9% that same day. Hedge fund profit-taking and stop-loss algorithms drove the selloff, not a change in fundamentals. Central banks are still buying gold. Mining supply is still flat. Bull markets have corrections. This was one.

Rick Rule, one of the most respected natural resource investors alive, calls this the early-to-middle stages of a gold bull market with a potential three- to fourfold increase over the decade. Central banks are accumulating gold at the fastest pace in decades. The macro case for gold hasn’t been this strong since the 1970s.

I own both. I wrote about why: Bitcoin and Gold: Competitors or Teammates?

If you own gold in a non-retirement account, make sure you know the tax rules. And if you’re wondering how to use your 401(k) to buy gold, I wrote about that too.

The Political Variable Nobody’s Watching

Here’s the piece I think most people are missing completely. I wrote a full blog post about it: The Variable Nobody’s Talking About: Why Political Survival May Be the Most Bullish Signal of All.

The short version: the November 2026 midterms are coming. If the economy is weak heading into those elections, Republicans lose the House and possibly the Senate. The administration knows this. Fox News polls show 52% of voters already support Democratic candidates for the House.

That means the political incentive to flood the system with liquidity is enormous. eSLR exemptions, TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, rate cuts — all the tools are available and the motivation to use them couldn’t be stronger.

And the early data says it may already be working. The ISM manufacturing index just surged to 52.6 in January — the biggest one-month jump since the COVID recovery. Above 50 means expansion. The economic engine is turning over.

Consumer sentiment lags actual conditions by several months. So the economic foundation needs to be laid by Q2 2026. Not next year. Right now.

I’m not making a political statement. I’m making a math statement. When the incentives all point in one direction, that’s usually the direction things go.

What I’m Doing With My Own Money

Same as always. Holding my quality positions. Not panic selling. Not trying to time the exact bottom.

The 11% hurdle rate framework has sharpened my focus. Every investment gets one question: “Does this clear 11%?” If not, I need a very good reason to keep it.

Right now, I hold:

Quality dividend stocks in energy and minerals — Rick Rule put it simply: the oil industry alone is underinvesting roughly $2 billion per day in sustaining capital. The world stopped investing in energy and natural resources, but it never stopped using them. That’s arithmetic, not narrative. Companies in this space are throwing off 4-7% dividends while you wait for the inevitable repricing. That almost clears my hurdle rate before the capital gains even start.
Bitcoin as a scarce asset position for the next decade of debasement. I’ve written about why I’m buying Bitcoin right now — and that hasn’t changed.
Gold as insurance against exactly the kind of volatility we’re seeing. Gold has been protecting portfolios since before any of us were born.
Cash — enough for 6 months of living, no more

That’s it. Simple. Boring. And it clears the hurdle rate over any reasonable time horizon.

Ask Chad

Got a question about your money that you’ve been afraid to ask? Reply to this email and tell me. I’ll answer the best ones in upcoming issues. No question is too basic — the only dumb financial question is the one you don’t ask.

Coming Up

I’m going to be writing more regularly now. Expect:

Two blog posts per week covering Bitcoin, markets, energy, gold, and personal finance — always with the data to back it up
A monthly newsletter (this one) summarizing what matters and what doesn’t
Honest takes when I’m wrong — not just when I’m right

I’m glad to be back. The next 12 months are going to be wild, and I’d rather navigate them with you than alone.

Talk soon,

Chad A. Walker, CPA, MBA
Coast 2 Coast Financial

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Disclaimer: Not financial advice, educational purposes only. The views expressed in this article are my personal opinions based on my own research and analysis. I am not a registered financial advisor. Nothing in this article should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.