In my last article, I made a bold call: February 10, 2026 isn’t confirming the cycle top. It’s marking a bottom. The cycle extended, and the real move is still ahead.
But I also spent a lot of time playing devil’s advocate against myself. I laid out five dates I nailed from December 2023—and acknowledged that my original framework said February 10 would confirm the top, not mark a bottom.
So which is it?
Rather than ask you to take my word for it, I want to give you the exact criteria I’ll be using to judge whether my updated view is right or wrong. No moving the goalposts. No retroactive rationalization. Here’s exactly what I’ll be watching over the next few weeks.
The Two Scenarios
Scenario A: I’m Wrong.
If my original December 2023 framework was correct, then the October 2025 top at $125,000 was the cycle high. The current decline is Wave A of a larger correction. What comes next is a Wave B bounce—a counter-trend rally that looks and feels like a bottom but isn’t.
Wave B bounces are notorious for trapping bulls. They grind higher slowly, suck people in, and then reverse violently into Wave C—which takes price to new lows.
If this is Wave B, here’s what it would look like: Price bounces from $70kish but moves in a choppy, three-wave structure (a-b-c). It grinds higher over 4-8 weeks, eventually reaching the $99-105k zone—a 50-61.8% retracement of the decline from $125k. Then it stalls. The rally feels heavy the whole way. Pullbacks are deep and overlapping. And just when everyone thinks the bottom is in, Wave C begins and takes us to $50-60k or lower.
Scenario B: I’m Right.
If my updated view is correct, then the cycle extended from 4 years to 5.4 years due to COVID-era debt maturity extensions. The ISM just confirmed this by hitting 52.6—the highest since August 2022—and accelerating toward the 60 level where Bitcoin has historically topped. The $70kish level is the bottom of a Wave 2 correction, and what comes next is Wave 3.
Wave 3s in Elliott Wave theory are the longest and most powerful waves. They don’t grind. They explode.
If this is Wave 3, here’s what it would look like: Price launches from $7okish in a clear five-wave impulse structure (i-ii-iii-iv-v). It blasts through $100k within 2-3 weeks—not 4-8 weeks. The move feels relentless. Pullbacks are shallow and get bought immediately. Price doesn’t stall at $100k; it pushes straight through toward $125k and potentially beyond. By late February or early March, we’re testing all-time highs.
The Scorecard: What I’ll Be Watching
Here’s the table I’ll use to track which scenario is playing out:
| What to Watch | If I’m WRONG | If I’m RIGHT | Why It Matters |
| Wave Structure | 3 waves up (a-b-c) | 5 waves up (i-ii-iii-iv-v) | Corrective vs. impulsive |
| Speed | Slow, grinding, choppy | Fast, relentless, urgent | Wave 3s don’t wait |
| $100k Timing | 4-8 weeks to grind there | 2-3 weeks max | Speed is the signal |
| Price Ceiling | Stalls at $99-105k | Blasts through, tests $125k | Wave B vs. Wave 3 targets |
| Pullbacks | Deep, overlapping, confusing | Shallow, quick, bought hard | Character of the move |
| Feel | “This feels heavy” | “This can’t be stopped” | Trust your gut |
The Key Insight: Speed Is the Signal
The single most important differentiator isn’t price level—it’s speed.
Wave B bounces are slow. They’re grinding. They feel uncertain. Every rally gets sold into. Every breakout fails. It takes weeks to cover ground that should take days.
Wave 3 moves are fast. They’re urgent. They feel like the train is leaving the station and you’re either on it or you’re not. Dips get bought instantly. Breakouts stick. The market doesn’t give you clean pullbacks to enter.
If it takes until late February just to grind back to $95-100k and it feels labored the whole way, that’s the Wave B tell—even if price is “higher.”
If we’re at $100k within 2-3 weeks and it feels like it can’t be stopped, that’s the Wave 3 confirmation.
My Commitment
I’m writing this now—before the move happens—so I can’t rationalize after the fact.
If by mid-to-late February, Bitcoin is grinding slowly toward $95-100k in a choppy three-wave structure, with deep overlapping pullbacks and heavy selling on every rally, I will publicly acknowledge that my updated view appears to be wrong and the original December 2023 framework was likely correct. I’ll reassess my position accordingly.
If by mid-to-late February, Bitcoin has blasted through $100k in an impulsive five-wave structure, with shallow pullbacks that get bought aggressively and a relentless character to the move, I will consider the cycle extension thesis confirmed and look for the next key levels.
No moving the goalposts. No “well, it’s different because…” The criteria are set. Now we wait and watch.
The Bottom Line
Markets are humbling. The best you can do is have a framework, define your criteria in advance, and be honest when the evidence contradicts your view.
I’ve made my call. I’ve defined what “right” and “wrong” look like. Now I’ll let the market tell me which one it is.
I’ll be posting updates as price action develops. If you want to follow along, you know where to find me.
*Educational purposes only, not financial advice.
Related: Narrative Exhaustion Bad | Matters
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