I owe you an honest conversation.
Seven weeks ago, I told you February 10 was a date to watch. I told you acceleration to the upside was coming by the end of March. And I need to sit here on March 31, 2026 — with Bitcoin at $67,822, gold at $4,563, and a war raging in the Middle East — and tell you: I was wrong on the timing of the acceleration upward.
That’s the easy part to admit.
The harder part — and the more interesting part — is that something much bigger may be happening than whether Bitcoin goes up or down in the next 60 days. I’ve been staring at cycle frameworks that go back 150 years, and what I’m seeing is making me rethink not just my February call, but the entire way I’ve been framing this market.
Let me walk you through it.
What I Got Wrong
I’ll start here because it’s the right thing to do.
I had been following W.D. Gann’s timing methodology — the 8-month cycles from February 2024 through October 2024 through June 2025 through February 2026. The planetary dates around February 20 were lining up. Saturn conjunct Neptune at 0° Aries — a once-in-36-year alignment. Everything pointed to February 10 as a potential major cycle low, and I expected acceleration to the upside by the end of March.
That acceleration didn’t happen. Not even close.
As I write this, Bitcoin is 46% below its all-time high. It’s trading below the 50% Gann retracement — a level that, in Gann’s framework, means the bears have taken control of the range. The March 27 close of $66,587 was the lowest weekly close since early February.
And the reason has nothing to do with charts, cycles, or technical analysis. It has everything to do with something none of us predicted.
Then a War Broke Out
Between my February articles and today, the US went to war with Iran. Not sanctions. Not tough talk. Actual military engagement. Israel and Iran, with the US directly involved. The Strait of Hormuz under threat. Brent crude above $112. Oman crude at $163.
And that changed everything.
Here’s what’s interesting from a Gann perspective: the planetary dates around February 20 — the Saturn-Neptune conjunction, the World Liberty Financial forum where Goldman’s CEO publicly admitted owning Bitcoin for the first time — those dates knew something was coming. They identified a real inflection point. I just assumed the shift would be bullish for risk assets. Instead, the shift was geopolitical.
Maybe that’s Gann’s methodology working exactly as designed. The dates identify WHEN something significant shifts. They don’t tell you WHAT the shift is. That distinction is something I understood intellectually but hadn’t fully internalized until now.
What I Got Right
Before I beat myself up too much, let me be honest about the other side of the ledger.
The February low held. Bitcoin hit approximately $63,000 on February 5 and $62,965 on February 24. Even with a war. Even with oil above $100. Even with 42 Macro going to 92.5% cash. The February low has NOT broken. As of today, we’re $5,000 above it. That’s not nothing.
The Gann dates were accurate. February 10, February 20, the Saturn-Neptune conjunction — all of them identified genuine inflection points. The price structure shifted around those dates. The direction just wasn’t what I expected.
Gold did exactly what sound money should do. I’ve been buying gold since $1,100 in 2016. I wrote about it in Protect Your Money and Prosper. Gold is now $4,563 — up over 300% from my original purchases. The central bank buying thesis I laid out in my March 21 article (“Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Levels”) is playing out in real time. Gold corrected from its $5,589 January high, but it’s holding above $4,000 and outperforming everything else.
Bitcoin is holding better than stocks. This is the one that’s making me think hard. Since the war escalated on March 1, Bitcoin has fallen about 7-8%. The S&P 500 has had seven consecutive weekly declines. Crypto-correlated stocks like MSTR, MARA, and RIOT are down 50-70% from their highs. But Bitcoin itself? It’s grinding. It’s not collapsing. That’s… interesting.
The Question That Changed
Here’s where it gets real.
For the last seven weeks, I’ve been asking: Is Bitcoin going up or down? Bull case vs. bear case. Scenario 1 vs. Scenario 2.
But I’ve been studying some longer-term cycle frameworks — Benner’s Prophecy from 1875, the 18-year real estate cycle, Gann’s own Financial Time Table from 1909, solar cycle correlations — and they’re forcing me to ask a different question:
What if the cycle isn’t about Bitcoin going up or down? What if it’s about the dollar going down?
I know that sounds like I’m moving the goalposts. But hear me out, because this connects directly to what I wrote in Protect Your Money and Prosper — the book about why sound money matters and why the dollar’s purchasing power has been eroding for 50 years.
What the Long Cycles Say
I’m going to write more about this on Friday. But here’s the headline version:
Four completely independent cycle frameworks — built by different people, using different methods, across 150 years — all converge on the same window. They say 2026 is a peak/transition year, 2027-2028 brings pain, and 2029-2030 marks the bottom and recovery.
The conventional interpretation is: stocks crash, real estate crashes, Bitcoin crashes, cash is king. Wait it out. Buy at the bottom.
But here’s the thing that’s been nagging at me: every one of those frameworks was developed when gold was still pegged to the dollar. Benner wrote in 1875. Gann compiled his table in 1909. Even the 18-year real estate cycle research from Hoyt in 1933 assumed a gold-backed monetary system where dollars were stable and crashes meant asset prices fell in real terms.
We haven’t lived in that world since 1971.
What if the “crash” these long cycles are predicting isn’t a 2008-style deflationary collapse where everything falls and the dollar rises? What if it’s a 1970s-style stagflation where the dollar falls, commodities surge, and asset prices are violently volatile but don’t actually crash in nominal terms?
In the 1970s, the Dow Jones went from 1,000 in 1966 to 1,000 in 1982 — sixteen years of nothing in nominal terms. But in real, inflation-adjusted terms? Investors lost 75% of their purchasing power. Gold went from $35 to $850. Oil went from $3 to $40. The “crash” wasn’t stocks going to zero. The crash was the dollar losing its value while stocks went sideways and commodities went parabolic.
Sound familiar?
The Bitcoin Question Nobody Is Asking
If we’re in a 1970s-style debasement cycle rather than a 2008-style deflationary crash, it changes the BTC question completely.
In 2008, when the crash came, money ran TO the dollar. The dollar index surged. Cash was king. Bitcoin didn’t exist yet, but if it had, it probably would have crashed hard — it was a pure risk asset at that point.
But we’re not in 2008 anymore. We’re in a world where:
- Central banks are buying 1,000+ metric tons of gold per year — de-dollarizing their reserves
- The US has $10 trillion in Treasury maturities due this year
- The SEC classified 16 crypto assets as digital commodities under binding federal law on March 17
- BlackRock launched a staked Ethereum ETF
- Goldman’s CEO publicly owns Bitcoin
- States are adding Bitcoin to their treasuries
And during this war — while stocks dropped 7 consecutive weeks and crypto-correlated stocks got destroyed — Bitcoin held above its February low.
Maybe that doesn’t mean anything. Maybe Bitcoin just hasn’t caught up to the selling yet.
Or maybe it means something much bigger is happening.
Here’s what’s different about 2026 that wasn’t true in ANY prior Bitcoin correction: spot Bitcoin ETFs now exist. BlackRock, Fidelity, and state treasuries hold Bitcoin as an asset class. The SEC classified 16 crypto assets as digital commodities under binding federal law on March 17. The US government holds approximately 328,372 BTC in a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The GENIUS Act created a regulatory framework for stablecoins backed by Treasuries. Goldman Sachs’ CEO publicly holds Bitcoin.
In 2022, when BTC fell 65%, none of this infrastructure existed. There were no ETFs, no institutional custodians of scale, no legal clarity, no sovereign holders. The structural demand floor under Bitcoin in 2026 is categorically different from anything we’ve seen in prior corrections. That doesn’t mean BTC can’t go lower. But it means the floor is likely higher than old cycle models would suggest.
And then there’s the contrarian signal I can’t ignore: when literally everyone is bearish at the same time, that’s historically when the turn happens. I’ve spent years studying Gann’s methods, and he was explicit about this — the crowd is always wrong at the extremes. When I find myself questioning my own thesis because the consensus is so overwhelmingly against it, that’s when I need to pay the most attention. The moment I give up on my February call might be the exact moment the market proves it right.
Jamie Coutts at Real Vision showed that when the SVB crisis hit in 2023, Bitcoin recovered first — up 14.05% versus 6.82% for the S&P and -9.87% for financials. Bitcoin led the recovery because when collateral stress resolved, money flowed to the hardest asset first. His Bitcoin Cycle Risk Score sits at 1 out of 5 — historically the level that produces the strongest 3-12 month forward returns.
If Bitcoin is transitioning from risk asset to sound money alternative — and the institutional infrastructure that now exists suggests it might be — it changes everything about how the long cycles apply to Bitcoin.
Where I Stand Today — March 31, 2026
Let me be crystal clear about what I know and what I don’t:
What I know:
– The Gann dates in February identified genuine inflection points. They were right about timing.
– A war changed the direction of the pivot. My framework isn’t built for wars.
– Bitcoin at $67,822 is below the 50% Gann retracement ($70,999) — bearish in pure Gann terms.
– Gold at $4,563 is holding its secular bull structure. Down 18% from highs. Not broken.
– The next major Gann time cluster is April 4-19 — four independent cycles converge. ATH + 180 days (April 4), February low + 45 days (~April 10), Halving + 720 days (April 9), and the Halving 2-year anniversary (April 19). This is the tightest convergence window since the correction began.
What I don’t know:
– Whether the war ends quickly or escalates further.
– Whether this cycle is 2008 (deflationary crash, dollar rises, everything falls) or 1970s (stagflationary grind, dollar falls, commodities surge, stocks sideways).
– Whether Bitcoin is transitioning from risk asset to sound money alternative.
– Whether the long cycles are pointing to a crash in asset prices or a crash in the dollar.
What I’m watching in the next 20 days:
– Does Bitcoin hold above the March 27 low of $66,587 through the April 4-19 window?
– Does Bitcoin reclaim the 50% Gann level at $70,999? That flips the structure bullish.
– Does gold hold above $4,200 (the 25% retracement of the 2022-2026 bull run)?
– Does the Gann Rule of 3 confirm direction? Three consecutive higher lows = bullish. Three consecutive lower lows = bearish. No signal yet.
– Does the war show signs of resolution?
– Do 42 Macro’s models shift out of INFLATION regime?
What I’m NOT doing:
I’m not capitulating. I’m not panic-selling my core positions. I’m not making dramatic allocation shifts based on fear.
I bought gold at $1,100 when everyone said I was crazy. I bought Bitcoin below current levels. I’ve held through worse than this. The worst investment decisions I’ve ever seen are made at maximum fear — and fear is maximal right now. 42 Macro at 92.5% cash. Prechter calling for a crash. EWI saying “sea change in the stock market.” When literally everyone is bearish at the same time, I get suspicious. Not comfortable. Suspicious.
And Bitcoin’s refusal to break its February low during a shooting war? That’s making me more suspicious, not less.
The Real Question
Here’s what I’m sitting with, and I think it’s the question that matters most:
Are we at the end of something, or the beginning of something?
The long cycles say 2026-2027 marks the end of an 18-year expansion and the beginning of a new cycle. The conventional read is: that means a crash. Protect yourself. Go to cash.
But what if “the end of something” is the end of dollar dominance — and “the beginning of something” is the beginning of a world where gold and Bitcoin serve as the monetary base instead of Treasury bonds?
That’s the thesis I laid out in Protect Your Money and Prosper. The dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1913. Central banks know it. That’s why they’re buying gold at record levels. The question is whether Bitcoin joins gold on that side of the ledger — or whether it stays correlated with stocks and falls with everything else.
I don’t have the answer yet. But I think the April convergence window is going to tell us a lot.
What I’d Tell You to Do
If you’re reading this and looking for a specific instruction, here’s what I’d say:
Don’t make dramatic moves based on certainty you don’t have. The people who are going to lose the most money in the next 6 months are the ones who are 100% certain about direction — in either direction.
Watch the April 4-19 window. Four Gann cycles converging in a 15-day period. Whatever happens during that window will tell us more than any prediction I can make today.
If you own gold, hold it. The secular bull isn’t broken. Down 18% from highs is a healthy correction in a multi-year bull market.
If you own Bitcoin, define your line. For me, it’s the February low. If Bitcoin holds above ~$63,000 through April, the cycle bottom thesis is alive. If it breaks below, the Gann diamond target at $57,196 becomes the next major support, and I’ll reassess.
If you’re in cash, you’re not wrong. 42 Macro is at 92.5% cash with a systematic model. There’s no shame in cash when the world is on fire. But don’t stay in cash so long that you miss the turn.
And whatever you do, think about which kind of crisis this is. 2008 or 1970s. Deflation or stagflation. Dollar up or dollar down. Because that distinction determines whether cash protects you or destroys you over the next three years.
That’s the question I’m working on. Friday, I’ll show you the 150-year cycle evidence and what it says about which type of crisis we’re in.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. I’m a CPA sharing what I see in the charts and the macro data. Your financial decisions are your own. Do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Macro research referenced in this article comes from 42 Macro’s “Around The Horn” weekly presentations. Real Vision research from Jamie Coutts’ Alpha Crypto Pulse and Julien Bittel’s Macro Investing Tool is also referenced. All analysis shared here with attribution for educational context.
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