The Rocket Zone began on October 8, 2024 (green arrow below). With humility and knowing the ridicule precise predictions will bring, I present my 2025 forecast:
My forecast is not my prediction of what exactly will occur. I can’t know the future. But what I can do is have a plan, so I’m prepared to react as things unfold.
Every December I take off work from Christmas to New Year’s. Not because I have vacations scheduled but rather to reflect and plan.
I write out where I want to be in 5-7 years, in specific detail. And I build backwards actionable steps and processes I can put in place over the upcoming year to move towards that vision.
I also reflect on what I wrote in previous years, what vision I had then, what steps I planned to do, and where I wanted to be towards that vision.
The vision doesn’t ever turn out to be entirely accurate. Because I evolve as time progresses. But where I am today is closer towards the vision and that’s because I knew how to react as life developed.
I take the same approach with markets. I consume what I consider the best Macro and data driven research. I also study time analysis on my own. And I listen to others’ ways of thinking, not to influence my view but to force me to focus on where my view could be wrong.
I tell people this often. The majority of my time is focused on poking holes in my views. Trying to find where I could be wrong.
People think this may sound crazy but do you know what led me to Bitcoin in 2016?
Yes, I subscribed to independent research newsletters that recommended Bitcoin in 2016. But I had no clue what it was. The process of buying took me an entire day. Yet, I still bought some. And began researching it in depth ever since then.
Why?
In 2016, I wrote my first book that explained why everyone should own gold. And as I explained my conviction to one of my friends, he said “But what if you’re wrong?”
“What if gold doesn’t continue to be sound money for another 1,000 years?”
I confidently told him; I couldn’t be wrong. Gold can only be increased about 2% per year through mining. It gets harder and harder to find. The earth has a built-in mechanism that restricts the supply increase no matter how high the price goes.
His response: “What if Elon Musk mines an asteroid and finds it’s filled with gold?” “And the supply is instantly inflated?”
I was stunned. That’s where I could be wrong. Do I believe that will happen anytime soon? No. And even if they do mine asteroids, there may not be gold.
But it is a view that could prove me wrong. And because I spent time focusing on potentially being wrong; I believe that’s what forced me into paying attention to and learning about Bitcoin.
The fact there was code that enforced the supply restriction intrigued me. So even though I didn’t understand it. I bought some and was determined to learn more.
I still believe in gold. And own gold. That view has not changed. But it has modified and now I own Bitcoin as well. I recognize the world is becoming more digital and decentralized. And that it makes sense that sound money will follow.
I tell you this story so that as you read my working 2025 forecast, you don’t take it as a 100% accurate map. But rather as some guideposts to understand the way things COULD play out.
I build the playbook so I can position and prepare myself emotionally for when things go against me. And I constantly look for where I could be wrong and evolve the plan as new data and insights come to light. But if things going against me were planned and new information proving me wrong is not discovered, I remain undeterred.
Background:
In December 2023, I wrote how Bitcoin ETFs would be approved, and Bitcoin would make a top after February 6, 2024.
See my article on LinkedIn where I said:
“…into and after 2/6/2024 we are going to look for a temporary top and bottom within 1-2 months from that temporary top…Will Bitcoin take off from there? Probably not. It’ll most likely trade sideways or slightly higher for the next 6-8 months until our next key date”.
But I thought after the top would be a sharp sell-off. There wasn’t. I was right and wrong. The top occurred but the move lower was choppy and sideways as opposed to sharp.
Read my article from September 2024 which explains how even though the specifics were wrong, the cycle was not. So I remained undeterred in my conviction as we moved towards the next date.
Which I also wrote about in December 2023. See my article on LinkedIn about October 8, 2024 where I explained Bitcoin would rocket higher after this date:
“Will Bitcoin soar on this day? Most likely not…But after this date, any moment the rocket ship which is the Bitcoin price, will lift off…All you need to know now, is Tuesday October 8, 2024 is the date you need to do whatever you need to do to make sure you’re ready. Because the fun is about to begin…”_
Bitcoin is up over 50% in less than 3 months from October 8, 2024.
In March 2024 I put a free book on my website explaining Bitcoin and the opportunity. In order for you to have time to educate yourself and to take action before October 2024.
In this book, I gave previews of two more articles that were written in December 2023; although I didn’t publish them on LinkedIn until September 2024. I wanted you to focus on building your positions before I started writing about the selloffs to come.
See my article about June 10, 2025 where I wrote:
“This is probably the most important date. Why? Because we will most likely experience a significant drop in price. After 10/8/2024 and Bitcoin rockets higher (probably reaching a temporary high in April 2025, give or take a month), there will be a significant sell off. A 40% sell-off would not surprise me at all.”
And my article about October to December 2025 which states:
“This is where I cannot provide an exact date…But that doesn’t matter right now. The key right now is to know that as we get into October of 2025, you must be prepared to start selling.”
And if you really want your mind blown, review the charts I published In September of 2024 before the start of the Rocket Zone where I wrote an article titled Get Your Bitcoin Now – Final Warning!!.
In this article I wrote “The cycle will happen. The nuances within the cycle don’t repeat but rhyme.”
As we prepare for 2025, it’s time to revise those predictions as I have new information.
Part of that new information you can find in my November 2024 article titled Important Rocket Zone Update – Time Frame Differences Are NOT Contradictory.
In this article I wrote: “If the dollar continues higher (reducing liquidity) over the next 1-3 months, risk assets (including Bitcoin) COULD sell off…”
I’m going to get very specific in terms of how I believe the short-term price action COULD play out. But remember, history rhymes, it does not repeat.
So while I can look to past cycles to develop a roadmap, the short-term movements within the cycles will vary but they will rhyme. Even if short-term price action turns out different, unless new data is presented, it will not deter my overall cycle view that price is going much higher into the end of 2025.
The short-term predictions are for preparing emotionally for what I believe will be a rollercoaster ride of volatility into the high prices to end 2025. If we’re going to see the price action and gains to end 2025 as expected, the volatility as price moves through time towards Q4 2025 will cause most people to miss the massive gains.
Forecast
I previously wrote how liquidity has been trending lower due to the strength of the US dollar. And how this effect could cause a sell-off of Bitcoin in early 2025. But not to be deterred by that sell-off.
Liquidity will reverse. The dollar must weaken. But that may not happen until after the inauguration.
The sell-off that occurred on 12/19/2024 after the Fed meeting, which was less dovish, could have been the beginning of that move.
But I don’t believe it was…
The majority of what I wrote below was written before this sell-off began. I think this sell-off COULD continue until around 1/3/2025 but then we’ll move back to new highs.
Q1 2025:
I expect all of 2025 to have massive volatility and the beginning of the year will not disappoint.
As previously mentioned, the sell-off that began after the Fed announcement on 12/18/24 I don’t believe is the liquidity sell-off I discussed in my November 2024 article.
We may see a continued sell-off into around 1/3/2025 as investors lock in some gains for 2024 after the massive price increase. Remember, locking in gains means selling. Selling creates downward pressure on the price.
But then as 2025 gets going, everyone will begin positioning for the New Year. And the New Year is bringing in a very crypto friendly administration.
From wherever price bottoms during this current sell-off, I expect a move to new highs. At least above $115k and potentially all the way to $150k.
My hunch is this temporary high will occur sometime around the inauguration, specifically around 2/2/2025.
From there, a 20%-30% sell-off would not surprise me. The sell-off ending around 3/18/25 or more specifically on March 14, 2025 would be my guess.
We’ll probably hear a narrative that the sell-off was a sell the news event. That all the bullishness of the new administration being crypto friendly and the talk of a strategic bitcoin reserve was priced in.
And as the administration actually takes office on January 20, 2025, and with a move potentially to $150k, investors may take some profits and selling off the actual events.
This will cause people to panic and believe the top of the cycle is in. Remember my original forecast in 2023 was a high this cycle of $150k (I revised this in 2024 after new information).
Thus a really sharp sell-off. 20%-30% in less than 2 months.
But that wasn’t the top. That’s price moving through time, continuing to shake people out and just the liquidity dynamics we’ve been facing, and I previously wrote about, coming to fruition.
At the same time the top occurs, that’s also when I think the new administration will begin weaking the dollar (the Treasury will begin spending the Treasury General Account (TGA) around the 3rd week of January). This will cause liquidity to improve.
So after the sharp sell-off, I expect a quick rebound as the smart money will pile in heavily as they are sniffing out the massive liquidity that was injected a few months prior to the bottom.
Remember, BTC lags liquidity by approximately 11 weeks.
Q2 2025:
The bottom in March will lead to a massive move higher in Q2. I predict we’ll soar above $150k peaking around the June 10, 2025 date I previously wrote about.
You see, I’m modifying that prediction from December 2023 slightly. Instead of a sell-off into that date. I think that date becomes a top. Originally in December 2023, I suggested we’ll have a temporary top around April 2025 (within 1-2 months) and a bottom around June 10, 2025.
But remember, cycles rhyme they don’t repeat. And I have new information and expect significant volatility.
So I would not be surprised if price moves sharply higher into around 4/3/25, gets rejected lower into around 5/4/25 and then rebounds to this new all-time high around 6/10/25.
Q3 2025:
This is where I expect a quarter of choppiness that frustrates folks that the high is in. Everyone who bought at the Euphoria in June above $150k will get bored through the summer and sell.
But there will be buyer’s. All the institutions and governments will be buying. This will prevent a sharp sell-off and create the sideways chop. They will be buying because of regulatory clarity, liquidity still strong, and the potential strategic bitcoin reserve.
We’ll chop and chop around driving retail back out of the market into sometime in Q4 2025.
And since we’re being specific in this article, I’m going to give dates.
I could see the low of this chop occurring around 8/5/25. With a rebound into 9/20/25 but not to new highs. Then a drop into 10/6/25 but not below the 8/5 low.
Q4 2025:
Another rebound into 10/21/25 but below the 9/20/25 high. Further causing “everyone” to say “the top is in. We’re creating lower highs. The cycle is over.”
Then we head lower one more time into around 11/4/2025 or even 11/8/2025 (which is exactly 4 years after the cycle top in 2021). But this low will be above the 10/6/2025 low.
This will be classic price action to create even more chatter that the cycle is all over. But when everyone believes the cycle is over, the best part comes next.
A rip your face rally that goes to $225k-$300k in a matter of 1-2 months if not weeks.
A final Euphoria that sucks everyone into the market.
This probably comes to an end in December. It’s hard to say the exact date. It could be around 12/5-12/10/25 or it could come around 12/20/25. If the market really wants to rhyme and confuse people into missing the biggest gains, the top will not come until February 2026.
I don’t know exactly when the top will come but be ready for it.
Because then you know what happens.
Folks will be talking about $1M Bitcoin this cycle. But we won’t hit that this cycle. We’ll suck everyone in and then…
A massive drop.
Potentially 80% in total over the next year.
Personally, I don’t think we’ll see an 80% drop. I think this cycle will have a smaller drop then previous cycles as volatility reduces with increased institutional and governmental buying. But 60%? Sure.
From $225k that takes us to $90k. From $300k that takes us to $120k. But from wherever we top, ultimately going all the way down to $75k-$100k in late 2026 would not surprise me.
And from there we’ll begin building a base and the next cycle will begin.
Will this be the exact path. No.
But this is my working view and I’ll continue to review data every week to update as we move through time.
And as long as the data doesn’t change the view, since I had a plan, I won’t get swept away by the emotions of everyone else.
2025 could change your life. But only if you understand how the universe works and don’t follow the emotions of humans.
Enjoy the ride!
*Not financial advice. Educational purposes only.