You may have read my article about February 8, 2025, The Rocket Zone Becomes the Banana Zone, and say I was completely wrong. We’re after 2/8/2025 and price has dropped significantly.
But remember, I wrote this:
“I honestly expected price to come all the way down and retest the parallel red line around $85k-$86k. It hasn’t. It’s only come down to around $89k. But it still could. Remember, just because price CAN begin to move higher after 2/8/25 doesn’t mean it will immediately. It would not surprise me at all to see price still retest this level and not bottom until mid-March 2025 because that’s a year after the top before the long consolidation period from 2024. And price tends to rhyme on key dates…But I would not bank on this because it doesn’t have to.”
In my blog last week titled Wave 3 of 3 is Still Coming, where I spoke of big move up you may say I was wrong again. But remember, I wrote:
“I still believe the top on 1/20/2025 was the top of Wave [1] of (3). And that Wave [2] of (3) has bottomed or will bottom around $85k by mid to late March.”
I continued by saying:
“But I still believe much more upside is to come. The market will require patience. And it’s going to do exactly what it needs to in order to cause people to miss the big moves.
I think this wave [2] of (3) is doing exactly what it needs in order to cause people to miss wave [3] of (3) into the summer. And wave (4) along with a stock market sell-off will do what it needs in order to cause people to miss the final big move of wave (5) to finish out the cycle the end of 2025 and early 2026.
Patience!”
This volatility in the short term is exactly why I wrote my article in late 2024, Important Rocket Zone Update – Time Frame Differences Are Not Contradictory. I wrote:
“This is why timeframes matter and contradictions can be explained by understanding time. If the dollar continues higher (reducing liquidity) over the next 1-3 months, risk assets (including Bitcoin) COULD sell off…But this is just a temporary air pocket.”
And continued, “So when I say Bitcoin is going to soar now that we’re in the rocket zone, remember I told you this begins after October 8, 2024 and ends sometime in 2025 (most likely December). But that doesn’t mean we won’t have drops in the real short term due to the liquidity dynamics noted above or even the medium term when inflation tickets higher.”
I ended the article by saying, “You should already be allocated to Bitcoin. If not, we MAY (and I certainly hope) get one last short term opportunity to buy at lower prices (most likely still above $70-$75k).”
I’m not trying to talk about both sides of my mouth. I can be bullish over the entire Rocket Zone and Banana Zone, while also see short term large drops or consolidations. This volatility is very typical in Bitcoin.
And this drop combined with liquidity dynamics due to a weaker dollar actually further reinforces my view the cycle will play out as expected through late 2025/early 2026.
I’m not a trader. And I’m not writing articles and blogs to help people make short term decisions and trades. I’m a long term holder and writing articles to help educate people on how the market moves. Because the worst thing anyone can do is get scared and sell at a temporary bottom.
Could I be completely wrong? Absolutely. But I firmly believe in my thesis based on my research. Which is why I only write articles, not providing financial advice, but educating on exactly what I’m doing and why I’m doing it.
*Not financial advice, educational purposes only.