By Chad Walker | February 4, 2026
Bitcoin is sitting around $76,000 as I write this. Yesterday I published the most important article I’ve ever written, arguing that the 4-year Bitcoin cycle has stretched to 5.4 years and that the window around February 10, 2026 marks a bottom — not the cycle top confirmation I originally expected. I also published a follow-up, “Right or Wrong? We’ll Know Shortly ” laying out a clear scorecard so you and I can track this in real time.
So let’s talk about what’s actually happening on the chart.The hourly wave count shows what looks like a completed A-B-C correction from the October 2025 top at $125k. Price has pulled back into textbook Elliott Wave support — the top of the prior lower-degree Wave 1 and Wave 4 territory. That’s where corrections are supposed to end. We also saw a volume capitulation spike on the low near $72,800 on February 3rd, which is exactly the kind of exhaustion move you see at the end of a Wave 5 down. The 4-hour RSI is deeply oversold near 35-36. These are the ingredients of a bottom.
But I’m not going to sit here and tell you the bottom is confirmed. Because it’s not.
Here’s what’s keeping me cautious: Wave 5 of C still looks small relative to Wave 1 of C. In clean Elliott Wave structures, those waves tend to be proportional. That asymmetry means one more shakeout leg to $70k or slightly below is entirely possible before this correction fully completes. The daily Fibonacci supports that read — price has already broken below the 0.382 retrace at $83,442, and the 0.5 sits down at $70,439 as the next major support. Yes, the Ichimoku is bearish, but that’s a trend-following indicator. It tells you what already happened. It doesn’t tell you whether a bottom is forming right now. That’s like using your rearview mirror to steer.
This is where the scorecard from “Right or Wrong?” becomes critical. If I’m right about the cycle extension and this being a launchpad, we should see an explosive five-wave impulse move through $100k within the next 2-3 weeks. Not a slow grind. Not a choppy three-wave bounce. A violent, impulsive move that leaves no doubt about direction. That’s the bullish confirmation.
If I’m wrong, we’ll get the opposite — a grinding three-wave bounce that stalls somewhere around $99-105k, rolls over, and confirms the original December 2023 framework was right all along. That’s the bear case.
Right now, the market hasn’t shown its hand yet. And that’s okay. The dominoes I laid out — the government shutdown resolution, the Fed’s quiet pivot, Truflation collapsing to 0.86%, the eSLR changes freeing up bank balance sheets — those are still in play. The macro backdrop hasn’t changed. What we need now is for price to confirm.
Patience. Let the market tell you. Don’t tell the market.
I’ll be updating here as price develops. If you haven’t read the February 10th articles yet, start there — everything I’m tracking is laid out in detail. And if you want the full framework behind why I believe we’re in a generational setup for Bitcoin and hard assets, grab a copy of Accelerate Your Money and Prosper (coming soon but you get the original draft pdf for free here).
*Not financial advice, educational purposes only.
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